Brief Thoughts on the Climate Change Scandal, Sean Gabb


 

Free Life Commentary,
A Personal View from
The Director of the Libertarian Alliance
Issue Number 188
3rd December 2009
Linking url: http://www.seangabb.co.uk/flcomm/flc188.htm

Are the Russians Coming?
Brief Thoughts on the Climate Change Scandal
By Sean Gabb

Like many other people in our movement, I have been delighted by the publication of that computer archive from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. I have spent most of my life denouncing every excuse for state activism as a pack of lies. I have never yet had the joy of seeing the projectors of those lies revealed as little more than pantomime villains – twirling their moustaches while confessing their villainy in whispered asides. Compared with this, the “weapons of mass destruction” lies were misunderstanding in good faith.

But the question uppermost in my mind at present is what all this will mean for the climate change cult. Will this be a more complete moral and intellectual collapse than Communism ever suffered? To begin my answer, I will discuss the subsidiary questions of who and why.

In short, I believe the Russians are behind this. It may be that all those megabytes of data were stolen by a computer hacker. There may be any number of people who are up to such hacking in the technical sense. But this seems to have been an integrated operation. Having the technical skills to get access to a computer archive is not the same as knowing where to look in that archive and what to look for. Nor is it the same as knowing what to do with it.

But the Russians had means and opportunity to do the job. Perhaps their security services are no longer as efficient and as well-funded as in Soviet times. But they are still there. Their mission is no longer to win the Cold War. But making life easier for Mr Putin and his friends is a large mission in itself. They no longer have an active network in British universities. But there must be any number of senior managers there whose activities back in the 1980s would merit an outing in The Daily Mail, and who therefore are open to blackmail.

And the Russians had the best motive imaginable. Anthropogenic global warming is, as said, a pack of lies. But there is huge money behind it. And it is conceivable that Western scientific ingenuity will find a “carbon free” energy source that both works and is economically viable. Now, where would that leave Russia? Without its exports of oil and gas, the place is little more than a bankrupt post-Soviet slagheap. I believe the Russian state budget only balances on a minimum oil price of $40 a barrel. Knock the bottom out of the market in fossil fuels, and Russia can say goodbye to what progress it has made since 1991.

This is only a conspiracy theory. But it is interesting that the stolen data surfaced on a Russian server. Of course, Russia is beyond the reach of the British courts. But it is an interesting fact even so. I think this operation has gone so smoothly that only an efficient security service can be behind it. We can discount the Arabs and Iranians as not being up to the job. We can also discount the big oil companies – like the tobacco companies, they have been deterred from this sort of operation because of all those transparency laws. That leaves us with the Russians. They got the information. They packaged it. They have delivered it to maximum effect.

So what will be that effect? I cannot believe that it will be to prick the whole climate change bubble. There is too much corporate money and too much government activity now resting on the assumption that we must “do something” if sea levels are not to rise ten foot by next Tuesday. The cult leaders will not hang their heads and behave like the villain at the end of a Scooby Doo cartoon. When power and money on this scale are involved, things like that surely do not happen.

But will they be able to live this down? I have no doubt they will try. There will be an inquiry. Individual heads will roll. There will be the pretence of breast beating. But the lies will continue pouring out. The default response will be to turn up the volume of the lies to try and drown out the truth. After a few years, the embarrassment may have been forgotten, and discussion will have turned to how many units individuals should be given for their “carbon passports.”

And I shall be interested to see how well this can work. How powerful is the ideological state apparatus at imposing proven lies on the public mind? On the one hand, the propaganda streams out of every school and university and from every television screen in the civilised world. The message is nearly as uniform as in Soviet Russia. On the other hand, the weakness of the cult is that it has no message of hope and grants no indulgence to the masses. Christianity and Islam – regardless of their truth or falsehood – both offer an infinity of bliss for doing little more than good sense requires. Christians have to be a little more continent than nature seems to allow. Moslems have to keep off the bottle. There is no good news for believers in anthropogenic global warming. We are told to accept the rolling back of the industrial revolution simply to avoid catastrophe that hardly anyone dares tell us will strike within the reasonable future.

We know that the most notable preachers of this message have no intention of cutting back on their own living standards. Look at the Prince of Wales and his private jets. Look at Al Gore and his inflated utility bills. Add to this that the cult is not formally based on an extra-rational revelation, but on alleged scientific evidence – and the knowledge that this evidence has been fakes must count for something.

What I predict will happen is that the propaganda will continue for the next few years. But it will be gradually be replaced by a new set of justificatory lies. Global warming itself was the replacement for acid rain pollution, ozone holes, and even global cooling. In the absence of some new environmental claims, I suggest that we shall hear much more for now on about “peak oil” – the notion that fossil fuels exist in limited supplies and that they will run out within the next few generations.

This has the advantage of being arguably true. I know that people have been predicting the exhaustion of oil reserves for at least a century. But the world economy is growing fast at the moment, and may grow still faster. There must be some physical limit to how much oil and gas and coal can be economically extracted. Otherwise, there is the problem that the cheapest supplies are in unstable parts of the world. Doubtless, the specific claims made will be lies. But they will not require the same barefaced dishonesty as ignoring the historical and geological facts about temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, and ignoring all considerations of solar activity and other natural phenomena.

The other advantage, however, is that the peak oil hypothesis can be used to justify every tax and regulation so far made in the name of fighting climate change. Wind turbine construction, energy efficiency laws, the war on private motoring, bleats about “food miles”, and the like – all work just as well on the assumption that fossil fuels must be conserved.

This is a depressing prediction, so far as it allows the same caravan of liars to roll forward if on different wheels. But I am not sure if the transition will be as smooth as may be hoped. Liars who have been so visibly caught out in one set of claims may not find it easy to switch to another and maintain their full credibility. Until a few weeks ago, I saw the anthropogenic global warming claims as a new legitimising ideology for despotism as powerful in modern circumstances as state socialism had once been. Perhaps it has now been revealed as a fairly short-lived rescue hypothesis. It may not have anything like the long term appeal of state socialism. Whatever replaces it may be weaker still.

If this is the case, I for one will give thanks to Mr Putin. In the old days, he was a KGB officer. Nothing he may now have done can bring back all the people he helped murder. But repentance is always to be welcomed – especially when attended by so many good works.

NB—Sean Gabb’s book, Cultural Revolution, Culture War: How Conservatives Lost England, and How to Get It Back, can be downloaded for free from http://tinyurl.com/34e2o3

Free Life Commentary No 188, 3rd December 2009

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11 responses to “Brief Thoughts on the Climate Change Scandal, Sean Gabb

  1. Steven Northwood

    Good article Dr Gabb. I think you may have had past experience which merits a different perspective than myself on the Russians, but still I often find it difficult to dislike them. Particularly Putin. The murdering aisde, let’s not forget that the West is often just as bad, and probably only murders less due to its inability to get away with it, for the most part.

    I often think I ought to become an adviser to the Russian Government, due to the fact that I seem to have so much insight into their situation, by dint of not being Russian. They really could have the best of all worlds, given their current economic position as a major energy supplier along with their scientific and industrial aptitude. Good sport anyway, well done to them.

  2. Interestingly, Russia Today has been one of the few heroic media airing this scandal.

    The public has at last become aware of the manipulation that has been going on via the supine media so I doubt they’ll get away with a new one for some time to come – although I’ve no doubt they’ll try.

    Peak oil was shown to be a fraud last year, when ICE was outed.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the-global-oil-scam-50-times-bigger-than-madoff

    Prior to ICE’s inception, oil was not traded as a commodity because it was thought to be too important to national security for it to be subject to the vagaries of speculators.

    Looking back, it seems likely that ICE was formed in order to precipitate ‘peak oil’ in much the same way that sub-prime mortgages were pushed in order to precipitate a housing crash. The beneficiaries are the same people – the bankers and governments.

  3. Pingback: I’ve sabotaged the climate « The Libertarian Alliance: BLOG

  4. Dr Gabb seems to be stuck in the ideological
    timewarp of the “Readers’ Digest” circa 1956.
    A Serbian friend introduced me to the term
    “Pravoslavophobia” – Irrational hatred of Orthodox Slavs. It is a politically acceptable form of racism. I noticed it most keenly in 1999 when Clare Short (of the tender conscience) denied that Serbs fleeing Albanian murder squads were refugees. They were, she said “Just people who have decided to move”.

    My friend thought this phobia was based on four factors (at any rate in the USA)

    They used to be commies
    They use a sneakily different alphabet
    They cannot be categorised religiously on the scale from Southern Baptists to Roman Catholic.
    They never mastered the art of public relations
    and political bribery in Washington.

    So they are “other” and you can lay any accusation upon them.

    I too watch Russian news and have found its approach to AGW refreshing and straightforward compared to (say) the BBC.

  5. If it was the Russians, then expect more leaks from US climate sites. A staggered release sequence from the various bastions of AGW alarmism would be most effective.

    As for Russian media, it has been taken over by the Russian state. Things are almost as bad now for independent journalists as they were in the good old USSR. (you don’t know how lucky you are, boy)

  6. I would recommend everybody to have a look
    at Anthony Watts’ report “Is the US Surface
    Temperature Record Reliable?) on http://www.SurfaceStations.org – a piece of good ole
    individualistic, American David v Goliath perseverance if ever there was one. If the
    surface temperature data is dud then everything
    is up in the air. I don’t think he’s in Russian pay but, if he is, he was certainly good value for everybody.

    A friend, who teaches in Russia, tells me that the general opinion is that climate change/global warming is “American propaganda”.
    I certainly don’t underrate the state influence on Russian media, having seen it at work so effectively on our own dear BBC.

  7. Pingback: Daily Mail backs Gabb Russian Climategate hack hunch – official « The Libertarian Alliance: BLOG

  8. Your article may be right but it’s all speculation. Pure speculation.

  9. What else can it be but speculation?

  10. Pingback: Ahhhooogggaaa! WaPo discovers a “second” generation of Latinos, Tiger Woods accused of being a racist hound, Sen. Boxer: “You call it ‘Climategate’; I call it ‘E-mail-theft-gate’” « Locust blog

  11. Sean

    I admire your forthright views and consider myself to be a Libertarian of sorts. However, I do not concur with your speculation that the perpetrators are likely Russian. My view is that an external Russian hack is highly unlikely in this case, particularly one orchestrated by The State.

    This incident was far more likely to be the work of an insider (informant) with legitimate access to computer systems at the CRU. Possibly someone involved with administration of the CRU internal IT network infrastructure.

    I suspect the informant has at least intermediate level Information Technology skills and a modest understanding of the scientific work performed at the CRU, otherwise it would have been very challenging to collate this diverse package and subsequently disseminate it.

    Here are some links to pages which discuss what we currently know about this incident :-

    http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/12/speculation.html

    http://erratasec.blogspot.com/2009/11/climate-hack-used-open-proxies.html

    John Cookson (Ontario, Canada)
    My professional background includes 30 years in IT Management, Security and Software Development.